Overview of Key Betting Concepts + Two CFB Futures Picks - Game Theory Picks

Improve Your Football Betting Skills and Discover Why We Believe We've Identified Two Winning CFB Futures Picks

Photo courtesy of UWBadgers.com

Editor’s Note: The Gunslinger Buzz will partner with other Substack pages to share our work with similar audiences periodically. Today’s post comes from

Game Theory Picks

for a 2023 college football betting guide and a few futures bets to take a look at.

Hello fellow football enthusiasts! We have the honor of featuring a post on The Gunslinger Buzz Substack Page. We will hold off on the sports betting 101 stuff and talk about some topics every sports bettor should master before placing their first bet. Make sure to check out our exclusive Gunslinger Buzz discount and two free college football futures picks! Let’s jump in...

Section 1: Understanding the Differences Between College Football and NFL Betting

When it comes to football betting, many novice bettors make the mistake of lumping college football and the NFL into one category while in reality, they are as distinct as apples and oranges. Treating them as separate sports could be your secret weapon in outsmarting the books.

Rule Differences Affect Betting Outcomes

Firstly, the basic rules of the game differ significantly. For instance, college football games can't end in a tie, but NFL games can, except during the playoffs. The intricacies of declaring a player down, completing a pass and penalties vary, too. These rules directly influence gameplay and therefore, your overall betting strategies.

Team and Player Volume

The scale of the two leagues is also a huge factor. The NFL has 32 teams, while college football boasts an expansive 133, affecting the predictability of seasons and playoff dynamics. When it comes to the sheer number of games, College football outnumbers the NFL by more than nine times each week, making betting in the college realm more unpredictable due to a wider talent gap and frequent roster turnovers that you’ll come across.

Point Spreads

That talent gap often results in larger point spreads in college football matchups, sometimes reaching whopping numbers like -30 or even -40. The NFL, with its more balanced competition, seldom sees spreads beyond -14 (or even in double digits). If you're good at picking underdogs, specifically larger ones, college football might be your arena.

Information Accessibility

NFL teams are required to release injury reports, while college football tends to leave bettors more in the dark, causing many to gamble blindly. But this obscurity can be an advantage if you can access reliable information on lesser-known college teams, as line makers may often leave opportunities on the board across the full slate of college games.

Betting Patterns and Overtime Rules

Betting patterns are notably different between the two. The NFL sees heavier betting action and frequently changing lines, while college football offers obscure lines especially in less-watched games. Moreover, college football’s unique overtime rules can drastically affect total bets, sometimes turning an 'Under' bet into an automatic 'Over' by the end of the game due to OT rules.

New Rule Changes

Keep an eye out for new rules, like the running clock in college football. Implemented for the first time since 1968, this rule change will likely favor underdogs in high-point-spread games, especially when facing slow-starting heavy favorites.

Section 2: Closing Line Value (CLV)

The difference between the odds when you bet and the odds at the game’s start can either be your best friend or your worst enemy. In a world where games are often decided by a single point, you can't afford to ignore this.

The real measure of a good bet isn't solely determined by the final outcome of a game, but by the bet's intrinsic value at the time it was placed. This is where the concept of closing line value becomes crucial to your long-term success.

The principle here is not about winning or losing individual bets, but about consistently finding better value than the closing line. This is the hallmark of a seasoned bettor, reflecting their ability to accurately interpret and anticipate the market dynamics.

So how do you consistently get CLV?

First, every sports bettor needs to have several sportsbooks to shop lines. While sportsbooks generally share a collective mindset, mirroring the shifts of the most influential ones, there are instances where these platforms may not update their line promptly, or they might tweak their line slightly due to risk management concerns. In such cases, bettors can seize easy value as the lines will eventually align with the trends established by market making books.

Another golden rule to note is that early birds often get the worms in the betting market. This is an area where casual bettors can gain an edge over high-stake bettors. While the latter must wait for the betting limits to rise before placing substantial bets, this restriction does not apply to most recreational bettors. By accurately forecasting the bets likely to be placed by influential players, they can place their bets ahead of the market shift, thereby avoiding the trap of "chasing steam," or following sharp plays once the optimal value has been squeezed out of a line.

It is much easier to get CLV when playing markets that see more line movement and less action. Smaller markets like betting props, WNBA, MMA, certain college basketball and college football games can be advantageous. The bigger the market the sharper the line. We all had that friend who was betting Korean baseball during covid. Maybe they were on to something?

Section 3: Key Numbers You Should Know

Let's talk about the key numbers. These are often margins of victory and they’re not random. They're tied to the sport's scoring system. Three and seven are your magic numbers here, thanks to field goals and touchdowns.

The evidence is clear, about 15% of all NFL games since 1996 have ended with a three-point difference. That’s no small number.

Bookmakers, seasoned in their craft, are profoundly aware of these key numbers. In football, a point spread might gravitate around three due to its significance. A point spread slightly above or below this number, such as 3.5, can offer an opportunity for the astute bettor.

In the NFL, primary key numbers are 3, 7, 6, 10 and 4. In contrast, college football presents a distinct hierarchy: 24, 3, 7, 10, 17, 1 and 28. The reasons behind this disparity largely lie in the concept of parity. College football often sees mismatches with teams sometimes favored by margins as vast as 50 points.

Equally, total bets or over/unders are significantly impacted by these key numbers. Recognizing the regular combined scores enables bettors to identify when a point total offers potential value. In the NFL, key numbers for total betting revolve around 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33 and 47. In college football, key numbers in order of importance are 55, 51, 45, 59, 58, 52 and 41.

Wrapping it up

There you have it—a crash course on some surface level concepts you must know when betting on football. Being a successful bettor is about understanding the many variables at play and using them to your advantage. Each element, no matter how small it seems, can be the difference between a win and a loss. So always stay informed, keep learning and shop lines.

Why Subscribe to Game Theory Picks

Subscribe to Game Theory Picks and start treating sports betting as a genuine long-term investment. Our team brings together years of expertise in sports analytics, finance, and economics, and we have even honed our skills through working on advanced analytics for RedZone. We employ both fundamental and technical analysis to provide consistently profitable picks. Unlike services that boast high win rates but deliver poor ROI, we focus on providing +EV sports bets, giving you the confidence to invest based on advanced analytics and market inefficiencies. Subscribe to our Substack for daily recommendations, sports betting content and join hundreds of bettors who've already trusted us to elevate their betting game. 

Last season, we achieved a 57% success rate across our NFL and college football picks, encompassing both totals and bets against the spread.

We're excited to provide our Gunslinger Buzz subscribers with an exclusive discount on our annual subscription option. Click on the link below to snag our early bird annual at the special rate of just $150, a significant discount from the retail price of $240! We will honor this discount through the first week of the NFL season (9/11). 

*You must use the link below for the discount to apply*

Free CFB Futures Plays From Our Team:

Wisconsin to Win Big 10 West +140 (1u) - Fanduel Sportsbook

A disappointing 2022 campaign led to sweeping changes, and we like what the Wisconsin program has done this off season. From an elite coaching staff led by Luke Fickell to the return of 18 starters, the Badgers have set the stage for a stellar season. A beefed-up offense and a stout defense, coupled with a favorable schedule, makes them our top pick to win the Big Ten West in 2023.

The Badgers' offense, long known for its ground-and-pound approach, is set to undergo a seismic shift under new offensive coordinator Phil Longo. But before we dive into the changes, let's acknowledge the treasure trove of returning talent. Wisconsin has a ton of offensive starters coming back, in addition to transfer quarterback Tanner Mordecai and center Jake Renfro, though he’s expected to miss the season opener with an injury.

The arrival of offensive coordinator Phil Longo signals a departure from the traditional run-heavy scheme. Having orchestrated potent offenses at Ole Miss and North Carolina, Longo is expected to rejuvenate a previously stagnant passing game. With Mordecai, who threw for over 3,500 yards and 33 touchdowns last year at SMU, the aerial attack just got a lot more dangerous.

It doesn't stop there. Former four-star recruits like wide receiver CJ Williams (USC transfer) and the return of offensive linemen Trey Wedig and Jack Nelson add further depth and talent. Even with these changes, Wisconsin's formidable running game isn't going anywhere. Running backs Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi have been a nightmare for defenses, and they're expected to thrive even more with a balanced offensive attack.

The defensive unit, which was already among the Big Ten's best, returns eight starters this season. The arrival of defensive coordinator Mike Tressel will only add more steel to this robust side of the ball.

While the scheme might see some changes under Tressel, the talent is already in place. Linebackers Maema Njongmeta and Jordan Turner will lead the core, while strong safety Hunter Wohler is expected to play a pivotal part of their defensive unit. Although the defensive line may have been somewhat quiet last year, players like Isaiah Mullens, Rodas Johnson and James Thompson Jr. have the potential to step up their game. With a blend of experience and raw talent, expect this defense to be a nightmare for opposing offenses.

Wisconsin has every ingredient needed for a banner year: a premier coaching staff, a wealth of returning starters, a reimagined offense and a rock-solid defense. What's more, the schedule couldn't be kinder; key matchups against the likes of Ohio State and Washington State are balanced by the absence of Michigan and Penn State, and historical trends suggest favorable outcomes in games like the one against Purdue.

After a 7-6 letdown in 2022, this year's team is not just aiming for a winning season; they're gunning for the Big Ten West title and possibly more. With the resources at hand and the chips seemingly falling into place, we see Wisconsin winning the Big 10 West and will take advantage of the +140 odds.

Clemson to Win ACC +150 (1u) - Fanduel Sportsbook

Clemson has set the bar extremely high over the past decade, making anything less than an ACC Championship and a deep playoff run seem like a disappointment. This year, with a revitalized offense, a rock-solid defense, and favorable scheduling, Clemson is poised for another run at the ACC title.

In recent years, Clemson's once high-flying offense has sputtered a bit. While they averaged 33.1 points per game last season, this is a program that was racking up 40+ points per game in its heyday. Quarterback Cade Klubnik has been a double-edged sword, offering tantalizing potential while showing the need for growth. However, let’s not forget Klubnik performed well in the ACC Championship game with over 300 total yards and a rushing touchdown as Clemson went on to win the conference title. In addition, RB Will Shipley will be relied upon to help lead this offense and will be expected to breach last year’s.

The most significant change for 2023 is the arrival of new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, the architect behind TCU's spectacular run last year. His hiring is likely to inject new life into what has been a somewhat stagnant unit. 

Clemson's defense has been a cornerstone of its success. Last year, they were the third-best scoring defense in the ACC, and a significant portion of that unit is returning. However, there was some vulnerability against the pass that needs to be addressed.

Eight starters are back, including key linebackers Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and Barrett Carter. The experience they bring should help maintain the unit’s overall efficacy.

The real potential for improvement lies in the secondary. Cornerback Nate Wiggins is expected to have a breakout year, which could be instrumental in shoring up last year's lackluster pass defense.

A glance at Clemson’s schedule reveals several favorable matchups. Crucial games against Florida State and Notre Dame will be on home soil, giving the Tigers a significant advantage. DraftKings look-ahead lines lists them as favorites in a variety of key contests, which bodes well for their chances.

The revitalized offense under Garrett Riley and the experience-laden defense set the stage for a return to dominance. And let's not forget their remarkable 53-5 conference record since 2015. While Florida State, with their Heisman-contending QB Jordan Travis, shouldn’t be overlooked, Clemson's blend of talent, experience, and home-field advantage makes them the team to beat in the ACC. Given these factors, we expect Clemson to win the ACC and like the number at +150 odds.

*Please note these plays were sent to our paid subscribers on Aug. 26.*

Get our full college football futures picks and all other exclusive client picks across all sports using the below link.